5 Rules to Betting the Tournament

1. Follow the Trends (since 1991)

a. Bet Long Island +17.5
-#2 Seeds are 7-21-4 against the spread when playing opponents that are coming off of a straight up win in their previous game
-#15 seeds are 41-31-4 against the spread versus #2 seeds
b. Bet Syracuse -11.5 and Purdue -14
-#3 Seeds coming off a straight up loss in their previous game are 22-8-1 against the spread, including 6-1 over the last four years
c. Bet Wisconsin -4.5
-#4 Seeds are 26-13 against the spread when favored by 9 points or less, including 9-3 over the last five years

2. The Winning Formula

The formula to winning a national championship is as follows; senior point guard, size in the middle and a shooter that can light it up from the outside. The most recent example of this would be the 2009 North Carolina team that went on to win the national championship behind Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansborough, and Wayne Ellington. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your cup of tea) there is one team that fits this formula better than anyone else and that is Duke. Say what you will about the Blue Devils, this squad is well built for a deep run in the tourney. Senior point guard Nolan Smith is a legitimate player of the year candidate who has 21.3 ppg and 5.2 apg despite being asked to play out of position since Kyrie Irving went down with a toe injury on December 4^th. As for size, Duke has the Plumlee brothers, who have enough size to control the middle and are active enough to get out and run, unlike most big men. As always, Duke is never short of guys that can make it rain from the outside. This year, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins both fill that role, shooting 44.2% and 43.1% respectively from the outside. Oh yeah, yesterday Coach K announced Kyrie Irving might be ready to play in the first round against Hampton. Not bad when you can add a potential #1 draft pick to your team.

3. Not so neutral site

It’s not breaking news that home court advantage plays an enormous role in college athletics. Although the cities selected to host the tournament games are touted as neutral sites, this isn’t always the case. When betting the tournament and making your picks, take note of which teams are playing close to home and which teams have a long way to travel. For example University of Washington and UCLA, both West coast schools, have to travel 2,786 and 2,541 miles respectively to play in their first and possible second round games. On the other end of the spectrum, Notre Dame and University of Florida only have to travel 95.2 and 133 miles respectively.

3. Bet with Vegas, not against it

It’s no secret that Vegas usually wins; when it comes to sports books, the casinos usually win 55-60% of the time. We all have either experienced, or know some one that has experienced, that depressing Sunday flight home from Vegas were you are hung over as all hell, are stuck in the middle seat between a couple of people that took advantage of the free buffets, and your pockets are empty. The three hour flight is spent contemplating what happened the night before and how did I lose so much money. The beauty of sports gambling is that Vegas usually shows it’s hand when it comes to which side of a game they are exposed too. If you see a game that you really like and the spread is moving in your favor, don’t be afraid to load up and jump on the same side as Vegas. An example would be if you like Richmond against Vanderbilt in the first round. The spread opened with Vanderbilt favored by 1.5 and has moved up to Vanderbilt favored by 3.0. This means large amounts of money have come in and bet on Vanderbilt so if you like Richmond, load up and join the same side as Vegas. (Editor’s note: I’m not advocating betting on Richmond, it’s just one of the bigger moves in the first round so far.)

5. What are you doing at halftime?

One would think that you should have a better feel for the outcome of a game after getting to watch the first half, so why not take advantage of that knowledge? When you make a wager on a full game, the halftime spread may often give you the opportunity to either add or hedge to your original, full game wager. A prime example occurred yesterday during the UT-San Antonio vs. Alabama St. play-in game. Jimmy the Greek, on an inside tip, took UT-San Antonio -3.5 and at halftime they were up 48-21. It would’ve been tough to imagine them playing a better first half, which ended with UT-San Antonio’s version of Brian Scalabrine coming in and hitting a 40-footer at the buzzer. Thinking that this couldn’t continue for another half, I took my assumed UT-San Antonio winnings for the full game and put it on Alabama St. -3 for the second half spread. All in all, this meant that I double my money if UT-San Antonio won by a margin between 4 and 23, if not then the worst I can do is a scratch. It’s not a full proof plan but when the opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to go big or go home.